Sectional Spotlight: The 2026 Novice Chases, What the Splits Say About the Next Generation
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Of all 28 races at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, the two Grade 1 novice chases produced what Total Performance Data (TPD) described as “the pieces of form most likely to have an impact on the Championship races at the festival in the next couple of years.” A close reading of the sectional splits from both races offers a revealing portrait of three horses, Kargese, Kitzbuhel and Kopek Des Bordes, whose paths are likely to define the novice-to-open chase landscape for the next two seasons.
The Arkle (Tuesday, 10 March)
Winner: Kargese (7/1, Danny Mullins, Willie Mullins) | Time: 3m 52.35s | Margin: Narrow
Early Fractions: Kargese Sets the Terms
Kargese was the fastest horse in the field for each of the first three furlong-splits. Danny Mullins committed her to the front by the third fence, and the sectionals show a controlled but consistent gallop, not a suicidal tempo, but sufficient to keep the field in sustained pursuit through the back straight.
TPD highlighted that Kargese’s pace-setting had a notable effect on the race structure: by maintaining even fractions and giving her rivals no opportunity to settle behind a dawdle, she ensured that any error in the final two fences would be decisive. At a strong pace over two miles, the margin for error at Cheltenham’s close-set fences is minimal.
Kopek Des Bordes: Best in the Final Furlongs
The sectional data on Kopek Des Bordes, last year’s Supreme winner running just his second start over fences, is the most intriguing in the Arkle replay. For the four furlongs leading into the final fence, Kopek Des Bordes recorded the fastest individual furlong splits in the race. He was accelerating while Kargese was maintaining.
Then came the last fence. A bad peck, losing all momentum, handed the lead back to Kargese. His final furlong split was half a second behind the winner; had the fence been jumped cleanly, the result might have been different.
TPD’s conclusion: Kopek Des Bordes’ top speed of 36.01 mph ranked behind Kargese (26.37 mph run-out speed, 101% finishing speed), but the absolute numbers suggest a horse with a superior turn of foot who has not yet mastered the jumping demands of the minimum trip. His trainer’s post-race comments implied this may have been his last start at two miles anyway.
Lulamba: The Error That Ended It
Lulamba (Henderson, de Boinville), unbeaten in three chase starts and the Arkle market leader, travelled well until the second-last, where he made a critical mistake. The sectionals prior to that point showed him moving well within his limits, not working hard, tracking the pace comfortably. The error at the second-last arrived at exactly the worst possible moment: the point in a well-run two-mile chase where horses must begin to commit for home. He had no margin left to recover within the final furlong.
Timeform’s Graeme North noted that Lulamba’s “Achilles heel” of occasional jumping errors at pace had been flagged before Cheltenham, and the Festival surface exposed it precisely as feared. His individual furlong splits were never more than half a second behind the leader until that second-last error, meaning the race was his to lose rather than win.
The Brown Advisory (Wednesday, 11 March)
Winner: Kitzbuhel (11/1, Harry Cobden, Willie Mullins) | **Margin:** Clear
Kitzbuhel’s Front-Running Masterclass
TPD singled out Harry Cobden’s ride on Kitzbuhel as “one of the best rides of the week.” The horse is notably quick, and Cobden used that speed to establish a lead by the third fence in front of the grandstand, recording the fastest splits in the field for each of the first three furlongs.
The key observation from the sectional data: once Kitzbuhel reached the front, the ride became a masterclass in controlled front-running rather than a simple procession. Cobden gave his mount room at each fence, deliberately, to accommodate a tendency Kitzbuhel has shown of jumping to his right, while keeping him moving forwards at a pace that denied rivals the opportunity to settle.
Coming down the hill for the second time, gaps began to close in the field, but Kitzbuhel maintained his lead despite no longer recording the fastest individual furlong at any point in the second half of the race. The second-last fence was the moment TPD highlighted for study: a precise jump that preserved the lead through the most pressurised point of the home straight.
The Combined Field: A Larger Picture
TPD noted that the combined runner count for the Arkle and Brown Advisory, 38 horses, was the largest for these two races combined in the current century. The breadth of the fields made sectional comparison more challenging but also provided a wider data set for identifying horses whose speed profiles suggest future championship potential.
The two novice chases produced a clear top three to follow for 2026 – 27: Kopek Des Bordes (Arkle second, likely to step up in trip), Kitzbuhel (Brown Advisory winner, pace asset), and Kargese (Arkle winner, proven Grade 1 performer). Between them, they provide a compelling subplot heading into the next National Hunt season.
