What the Data Says About Jonbon’s Ascot Chase Victory

The Betfair Ascot Chase on 14 February 2026 was one of the defining performances of the National Hunt jump season to date. While much of the post-race commentary focused on Jonbon’s grit and courage in seeing off Pic D’Orhy over 2m 5f for the first time, the sectional and performance data published by Total Performance Data paints a more nuanced picture and raises intriguing questions about what the result means ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.

Winning Time in Context

The official winning time of 5m 17.35s was only 0.85 seconds slower than the course standard for the trip; an unusually tight margin given the Good to Soft ground. This suggests that despite the conditions, the two principals raced at a genuinely competitive pace throughout. The even fractions set by Pic D’Orhy in front, generating what Total Performance Data calculated as a finishing speed of 101%, created a truly searching test.

Speed Data: Jonbon’s Final Furlongs

Total Performance Data’s post-race analysis reported the following key figures for Jonbon:

– **Fastest horse in 6 of the final 7-furlong splits** �confirming that once he found his stride approaching the second-last, he was operating at a higher velocity than his rivals in the crucial closing stages.
– **Top speed:** 33.14 mph, faster than Pic D’Orhy, Blow Your Wad, and the late-finishing Edwardstone in the closing exchanges.
– **Late speed figure:** 34.82 mph, recorded as the fastest late speed figure in the race, confirming that his acceleration, though measured, was ultimately decisive.
– **Stride frequency:** In the latter stages, Jonbon’s stride frequency data suggested he may be “7 or 8 lbs below his 2024 peak” by Total Performance Data’s assessment, a caveat worth noting before his Ryanair Chase entry.

Pic D’Orhy’s Fence Fluency

An often-overlooked element of the sectional picture is Pic D’Orhy’s fence-by-fence data. Total Performance Data reported he lost an average of 9.2% of his speed at his obstacles in this race, a marked improvement from the 10.2% recorded at Sandown in November, which had itself deteriorated to 13.3% in the later stages of that contest. In other words, Pic D’Orhy jumped with appreciably better fluency here, making Jonbon’s victory even more meritorious.

Stamina Validation

One contextual finding from the data is particularly striking: stride frequency analysis suggested that “Forever Young would probably stay three miles now if they were to give it a try,” per Total Performance Data’s analyst, a comment based on how Jonbon was winning these races on stamina rather than raw speed. His stride frequency averages in the latter stages of both the Clarence House Chase (28 days prior) and the Ascot Chase indicate he is finding extra late, rather than having reserves in hand.

This has direct implications for his Festival target. Nicky Henderson indicated the Ryanair Chase (2m 4f) would be Jonbon’s likely destination, and the data broadly supports this. The ability to accelerate late under the burden of a two-mile-five chase, combined with the stride frequency evidence, suggests the two-mile-four of the Ryanair suits his profile better than a step up to three miles.

Haydock: The Slow-Ground Caveat

It is also worth noting the timing context. The Ascot Chase winning time was essentially on standard. By comparison, the Grand National Trial at Haydock the same afternoon returned a winning time of 7m 46.27s, some 22.27 seconds slower than the Haydock standard, reflecting genuinely deep going in the north. The Ascot figures therefore reflect a more straightforward reading of competitive merit.

Verdict

Jonbon’s performance was excellent by the standards of a 10-year-old who had two Grade 1 races in his legs within a month. The sectional data confirms he won on ability and stamina, not on a collapse by the opposition. Whether the slight decline from his 2024 peak, as suggested by stride frequency, means he falls just short in a wide-open Ryanair Chase field remains to be seen, but on the Ascot data, he arrives at Cheltenham with every justification for his 4-1 market position.